POLLS, WITH CAUTION – AT 12:55 P.M. ET:   We've cautioned that state polls are "iffy," especially in midterm elections where so much rests on turnout.   With that said, here is a brief summary of some of the most important Senate races:

Arizona – Almost a deadlock between American heroine Martha McSally and hardline leftist Kyrsten Sinema, the un-McSally.  Hard to believe that Arizona would elect a leftist, but it could happen.  However, late polls see a small surge for Martha. 

Texas – It's estimated that Ted Cruz is about six points ahead of glamorous, and empty-headed, rival Robert Francis O'Rourke, who calls himself Beto to sound Hispanic.  Cruz should be the natural winner in Texas, but Beto is loaded with vast sums of out-of-state money, and Cruz must campaign like crazy in the next two weeks, and get his people to the polls.

Tennessee – One late poll shows Dem former governor Phil Bredesen up slightly over Marsha Blackburn, but other polls show Republican Blackburn with a respectable lead.  The smart money is on Blackburn, but the smart money is often dumb.

Nevada – A very serious chance of losing the Republican seat held by Dean Heller.  Dem candidate Jacky Rosen is close, or even leading, in a state won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

(Those four seats are held by Republicans.  If all or some flip Democratic, it will be a near-catastrophe for the GOP, but may not cost the Republicans the Senate because other seats will flip Republican.)

Florida – Excellent Republic Governor Rick Scott is running neck-and-neck with incumbent Dem Senator Bill Nelson, although the newest poll shows Scott up by two.  Again, turnout, turnout, turnout.  Chance here for a GOP pickup.

Missouri – Liberal-pretending-to-be-centrist Senator Claire McCaskill is battling Republican Josh Hawley.  This should have been an easy pickup for the GOP, but for some reason it isn't.  It's a toss-up, although those on the ground are saying there's a bit of momentum behind Hawley.

Indiana – Dem incumbent Joe Donnelly has maintained a small lead over GOP candidate Mike Braun.  The Dems have great voting power in the northeast section of the state, near Chicago, where there are many voters, living and dead. This one may not work out for us.

Montana – The president has visited Montana several times during this campaign, and is out there today, trying to unseat Dem Senator Jon Tester with GOP stalwart Matt Rosendale.  The race is a toss-up, but Tester has consistently maintained a small lead.

North Dakota – Heidi Heitkamp, the Dem senator, is toast.  Kevin Cramer will be a Republican pick-up, unless something goes seriously wrong.

COMMENT:  Very close races, no guarantees, impossible to predict turnout.  Most "experts" see a Republican Senate, with possibly one to three GOP pickups.  I'll believe it when I see it.  And I want to see it.

October 20, 2018